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US Retail Sales Rose 0.8% in September, but Gas Did Most of the Work. What Shoppers Are Really Doing
- US retail and food services sales were $745.0 billion in September 2026, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier (Census Bureau, released October 15).
- August was revised up to a 1.3% gain from 1.1%.
- Gas prices rose more than 6% in the month, which inflated sales at gas stations.
- The control group, which strips out gas, autos, building materials and food services and feeds into GDP, rose only 0.1%.
- The next retail sales report, for October, is due November 17.
What happened
The Census Bureau published its advance estimate of September retail sales on Thursday, October 15. On the surface it was a strong number.
Sales at US stores, gas stations, websites and restaurants came to $745.0 billion. That was 0.8% more than in August and 6.3% more than a year earlier. Forecasters had expected a gain of roughly 0.3% to 0.6%. August was also revised up, to a 1.3% rise.
The catch: it was mostly the gas pump
Retail sales are counted in dollars. When the price of something jumps, sales of it rise even if nobody buys more.
That is what happened in September. Gas prices rose more than 6% in the month as oil stayed above $100 a barrel because of the war involving Iran and attacks on Gulf shipping. Gas station receipts did much of the heavy lifting in the headline number.
| Measure | September change |
|---|---|
| Total retail and food services | +0.8% |
| Versus a year earlier | +6.3% |
| August (revised) | +1.3% (was +1.1%) |
| Control group (ex gas, autos, building materials, food services) | about +0.1% |
Source: US Census Bureau and TD Economics, October 15, 2026.
The number economists actually watch
The control group is the part of retail sales that feeds into GDP. It leaves out gas, cars, building materials and restaurants. It rose only about 0.1% in September. Economists also pointed out that sales excluding autos and gas were not statistically different from zero.
Private data told the same story. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, built from card transactions, showed sales roughly flat to up 0.3% in the month.
In plain terms: households are spending more money, but much of the extra is going into their gas tanks rather than into stores. That is what an energy shock looks like in the data. For a deeper look at why the "core" number matters more than the headline, see our guide to core vs headline inflation.
Why it matters for the Fed
The Federal Reserve meets on October 28. Inflation was 3.7% in September, driven by gasoline (our CPI breakdown). A strong headline sales number gives rate hawks an argument that demand is holding up.
But the weak control group cuts the other way. If shoppers are stretched by fuel costs, the Fed may see less need to slow the economy further. That tension, rising prices alongside softening real demand, is the textbook recipe for stagflation, and it's why markets are split on whether the next hike comes in October or December.
What it means for investors
- Retail and restaurant stocks: Earnings season will show whether companies are seeing fewer items per basket. Watch for comments about "trade-down" to cheaper brands.
- Energy stocks: High pump prices are revenue for refiners and producers, which helps explain why energy has held up while tech sold off.
- GDP: The first estimate of third-quarter GDP is due later this month. A weak control group trims the consumer part of that number. Our explainer on what GDP is covers how the pieces fit.
What it means for your budget
If your own spending feels bigger but your cart feels smaller, the data agrees with you. The quickest wins are on the fuel side: compare gas prices with an app, use warehouse-club or grocery fuel rewards, and combine errands. Keep an emergency fund in a high-yield account paying more than inflation.
What to watch next
- October 28: the Fed's rate decision.
- Late October: first estimate of third-quarter GDP.
- November 17: October retail sales, the first read on early holiday shopping.
Frequently asked questions
How much did US retail sales rise in September 2026?
Retail and food services sales rose 0.8% from August to $745.0 billion, according to the Census Bureau's advance estimate released October 15, 2026. Sales were 6.3% higher than in September 2025.
Why did retail sales rise so much if consumers are slowing down?
Retail sales are measured in dollars, not in units. Gasoline prices rose more than 6% in September, so gas station sales jumped even if people bought the same amount of fuel. Strip out gas, cars and a few volatile categories and sales rose only about 0.1%.
What is the retail sales control group?
The control group leaves out gas stations, auto dealers, building materials stores and food services. Economists use it because it feeds directly into the government's estimate of consumer spending in GDP. In September 2026 it rose about 0.1%.
Are retail sales adjusted for inflation?
No. The headline figure is nominal. With consumer prices up 3.7% over the past year, the 6.3% annual rise in sales means real, inflation-adjusted spending grew roughly 2.5%, and less than that in the latest month.
What does the September retail sales report mean for stocks?
It is mixed news. A resilient headline lowers recession fears, but weak underlying demand plus high gas prices squeeze companies that sell discretionary goods. Retailers and restaurants report third-quarter results over the next few weeks, which will show how much shoppers are trading down.
Primary sources
Data & disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Figures reflect data available as of Oct 20, 2026, and conditions change — always confirm current pricing, rates and rules with the provider before you act. Written by Elizabeta Dimoska. See our editorial standards and disclosure.
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