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US Consumer Confidence Jumped to 91.7 in October, the Biggest Rise in Months. Is the Consumer Back?
- The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October 2026, from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September. Economists expected about 80.4.
- The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4. The Expectations Index rose 6.9 points to 72.6, still below 80.
- Average 12-month inflation expectations eased to 5.8%.
- 26.7% of consumers said jobs were 'plentiful,' up from 24.3%. 21.4% said jobs were 'hard to get,' unchanged.
- The Conference Board's economist said confidence remains on a long-term downward trend.
The surprise
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 91.7 in October 2026, up 7.5 points from September. Economists had expected a drop to about 80.4. Instead, confidence returned to roughly where it was in June.
The release came out Tuesday, October 27, the same morning as stronger-than-expected durable goods orders (up 1.8% in September) and new home sales (676,000 annualized).
What improved
| Measure | October 2026 | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 91.7 | 84.2 (revised) | +7.5 |
| Present Situation Index | 120.4 | 111.8 | +8.6 |
| Expectations Index | 72.6 | 65.7 | +6.9 |
| 12-month inflation expectations | 5.8% | — | eased |
| Jobs "plentiful" | 26.7% | 24.3% | +2.4 pts |
| Jobs "hard to get" | 21.4% | 21.4% | unchanged |
Source: The Conference Board, October 27, 2026.
Two things stand out. First, people felt better about jobs right now, even after a weak September payroll report. Second, inflation expectations came down a bit, though 5.8% is still high.
The catch
The Conference Board itself urged caution. Its senior economist said confidence "remained on the long-term downward trend," blaming higher prices and persistent inflation for eroding purchasing power.
The Expectations Index, at 72.6, is still below 80, a level the Conference Board has historically linked to a higher risk of recession. One good month after three bad ones isn't a trend change yet.
Why investors care
For the Fed: A sturdier consumer gives the Fed less reason to worry about growth and more reason to keep fighting inflation. Markets already price a likely December hike. Strong confidence data doesn't change today's expected hold, but it supports the hawks. See our Fed decision preview.
For retail and consumer stocks: The holiday shopping season starts in a few weeks. Better confidence is a tailwind, but company results tell a mixed story. Coca-Cola's North American volume was flat last quarter (our report), while cruise lines raised guidance. Confidence surveys and spending often diverge, as we explained in consumer confidence vs cruise guidance.
For bonds: Stronger data tends to push Treasury yields up. The 10-year yield was near 4.99% on Tuesday.
What it means for you
- Don't read too much into one survey. Confidence swings with gas prices and headlines. Spending depends on jobs and wages.
- Holiday budget: Inflation expectations near 6% tell you most households still feel prices rising. Plan holiday spending in advance rather than on credit.
- Investing: Consumer stocks have lagged this year. A confidence rebound alone isn't a reason to chase them. A diversified index fund already gives you exposure.
What to watch next
- Thursday, October 29: PCE inflation and consumer spending for September.
- Early November: October jobs report.
- Late November: Black Friday and holiday sales data.
Frequently asked questions
What was the US consumer confidence reading for October 2026?
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 in October 2026 from 84.2 in September (revised up from 81.9). Economists had expected a reading of about 80.4.
Why did consumer confidence rise in October 2026?
Consumers felt better about current business and job conditions, and expectations for the next six months improved after three monthly declines. Average 12-month inflation expectations also eased, to 5.8%.
Does an Expectations Index below 80 mean a recession?
The Conference Board has historically treated an Expectations Index below 80 as a possible recession signal. October's reading was 72.6, still below that line even after rising 6.9 points, so the improvement is real but incomplete.
What does higher consumer confidence mean for the Fed?
Stronger confidence and spending reduce the risk that the economy is stalling, which gives the Fed more room to keep fighting inflation. Combined with sticky prices, it slightly strengthens the case for a December rate hike.
Is consumer confidence a good predictor of spending?
Only loosely. Confidence surveys often move with gas prices, stock markets and headlines, while actual spending depends more on jobs and income. Investors usually watch retail sales and company guidance alongside the survey.
Primary sources
Data & disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Figures reflect data available as of Oct 28, 2026, and conditions change — always confirm current pricing, rates and rules with the provider before you act. Written by Elizabeta Dimoska. See our editorial standards and disclosure.
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