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Module 9 · Ratio analysis Advanced

A ratio means little alone. Compare it with the company's own history and with direct peers.

RS 201 Financial Statement Analysis · By · ~7 min read, ~2 hr with practice · Not started

By the end of this module you'll be able to

  • Calculate and interpret liquidity, solvency, profitability and efficiency ratios, and decompose return on equity.

Overview

Group Ratio Formula Maple Outfitters
Liquidity Current ratio Current assets / current liabilities 350 / 90 = 3.89
Liquidity Quick ratio (Cash + receivables) / current liabilities 200 / 90 = 2.22
Solvency Debt to equity Total debt / equity 300 / 460 = 0.65
Solvency Net debt to EBITDA (Debt minus cash) / EBITDA 220 / 180 = 1.22
Solvency Interest coverage EBIT / interest expense 130 / 20 = 6.5
Profitability Gross margin Gross profit / revenue 40.0%
Profitability Operating margin EBIT / revenue 13.0%
Profitability Net margin Net income / revenue 8.25%
Profitability Return on assets (ROA) Net income / total assets 9.7%
Profitability Return on equity (ROE) Net income / equity 17.9%
Profitability Return on invested capital (ROIC) EBIT x (1 minus tax rate) / (debt + equity) 97.5 / 760 = 12.8%
Efficiency Asset turnover Revenue / total assets 1.18
Efficiency Days sales outstanding Receivables / revenue x 365 43.8 days
Efficiency Days inventory outstanding Inventory / COGS x 365 91.3 days
Efficiency Days payables outstanding Payables / COGS x 365 54.8 days

Textbooks often use average balances for the denominator of return and turnover ratios. Year-end balances are used here for simplicity; be consistent.

Cash conversion cycle (CCC) = DSO + DIO minus DPO = 43.8 + 91.3 minus 54.8 = 80.3 days. This is how long cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A shorter cycle needs less financing. Some retailers and subscription firms have negative cycles: customers pay before suppliers are paid.

DuPont analysis

ROE splits into three drivers:

ROE = net margin x asset turnover x financial leverage = (net income / revenue) x (revenue / assets) x (assets / equity)

Maple: 8.25% x 1.176 x 1.848 = 17.9%. Two companies with the same ROE can be very different: a grocer earns it with thin margins and high turnover, a luxury brand with fat margins, a bank with leverage. ROE driven mainly by leverage is riskier.

ROIC versus cost of capital

A company creates value only when ROIC exceeds its cost of capital (covered in RS 202). Growth at an ROIC below the cost of capital destroys value.

Limits of ratios

Different accounting policies, different fiscal year ends, seasonality in balance sheet dates, acquisitions and one-time items all distort ratios. Always read the notes before trusting a comparison.

The five-step DuPont

The three-step version can be split further to separate operations from financing and tax:

ROE = (net income / pre-tax income) x (pre-tax income / EBIT) x (EBIT / revenue) x (revenue / assets) x (assets / equity)

The five terms are the tax burden, the interest burden, the EBIT margin, asset turnover and financial leverage. Maple: 0.750 x 0.846 x 0.130 x 1.176 x 1.848 = 17.9%. The split shows that Maple's interest costs take about 15% of its operating profit and tax a quarter of the rest.

Worked example 2: two firms, two routes to ROE
Measure Firm A Firm B
Revenue 500 500
Net income 50 25
Total assets 400 250
Equity 300 100
Net margin 10.0% 5.0%
Asset turnover 1.25 2.00
Leverage (assets / equity) 1.33 2.50
ROE 16.7% 25.0%

Firm B has the higher ROE, but half of it comes from leverage. If B's margin fell to 2%, its ROE would drop to 10%; with liabilities of 150 against equity of 100, it has much less room for error than A.

Average or year-end balances

Return and turnover ratios mix a flow (a year of profit or revenue) with a stock (a balance on one date). Using the average of opening and closing balances matches them better. With opening equity of 440, closing equity of 480 and net income of 92, ROE on average equity is 92 / 460 = 20.0%, against 19.2% on closing equity.

Cash-based ratios

Accrual ratios can be flattered; cash ratios are harder to fake. Useful ones: operating cash flow / current liabilities (liquidity), free cash flow / total debt (how fast debt could be repaid), and cash conversion (CFO / net income). Maple's FCF / debt is 22.5 / 300 = 7.5%: about 13 years to repay its debt from free cash flow alone.

The Altman Z-score

For public manufacturers:

Z = 1.2 x (working capital / total assets) + 1.4 x (retained earnings / total assets) + 3.3 x (EBIT / total assets) + 0.6 x (market value of equity / total liabilities) + 1.0 x (revenue / total assets)

Worked example 3: Maple’s Z-score

Assume retained earnings of 300 and a share price of $10 (market value of equity 1,000). Total liabilities are 90 + 300 = 390.

  • 1.2 x 260 / 850 = 0.37
  • 1.4 x 300 / 850 = 0.49
  • 3.3 x 130 / 850 = 0.50
  • 0.6 x 1,000 / 390 = 1.54
  • 1.0 x 1,000 / 850 = 1.18

Z is about 4.1, well inside the safe zone above 3.0.

Industry context

Ratios only mean something against the right peer group. A grocer earns net margins of 2% to 3% and turns its assets over several times a year; a software company can have gross margins above 70% and almost no inventory; a utility carries high debt against stable regulated cash flow. Compare like with like.

Put it into practice

Your mission

Build a ratio sheet with all 15 ratios for two competitors over three years. Write five sentences on which is the stronger business and why.

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Educational content only; not investment, tax or legal advice. Companies, tickers and figures are illustrative examples, not recommendations. Rules, rates and limits change, so check current details with the regulator, exchange or tax authority before relying on them. Worked examples are not forecasts. Written by Elizabeta Dimoska. RiskStock is not a registered dealer or adviser.