The Fed-Bank of Canada Gap Just Hit 1.5 Points. Here's What That Does to Your Loonie and Your US Stocks.
- The Fed's target range is now 3.75%-4.00% (Sept. 16). The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25% (held Sept. 2). The gap is 1.5 to 1.75 points.
- On Sept. 16 the loonie fell to 1.3990 per US dollar, about 71.5 US cents, a six-week low.
- Canada's August CPI: 3.0% headline, unchanged. CPI excluding gasoline rose to 2.4% from 2.2%. Rent: +2.8%, up from 2.5%. Gasoline: +22.8%.
- Canadian 2-year yield: 3.38%. 10-year: 3.94%. The US 10-year was near 5%.
- The Bank of Canada's next decision is October 28, 2026, with a new Monetary Policy Report.
The number that moved this week
On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% since its last cut and held again on September 2. It cited excess supply in the economy and an unemployment rate near 6.5%.
That leaves US short-term rates 1.5 to 1.75 points above Canada's. Currency markets reacted quickly. The loonie weakened to 1.3990 per US dollar, about 71.5 US cents, its lowest in six weeks.
"The U.S. dollar is grinding higher against all of its major rivals," Corpay's Karl Schamotta said. Investors are raising their bets on another Fed hike by December.
The inflation detail that got lost
Canada's August CPI came out September 14, and most coverage led with "inflation steady at 3%." The more interesting line was lower down in the Statistics Canada release.
- CPI excluding gasoline: 2.4%, up from 2.2% in July
- Rent: +2.8%, up from 2.5%, driven by Ontario and Manitoba
- Travel tours: +26.1%, up from 15.2%
- Gasoline: +22.8%, slightly lower than July's 25.7%
Headline inflation held steady because gasoline eased a little. Underneath it, prices outside of fuel are starting to pick up. That's the early sign of the "second-round effect" central banks worry about. Energy costs start showing up in services, transportation and eventually rent.
The Bank of Canada is stuck between two risks
The BoC has a harder call than the Fed. US growth is holding up. Canadian growth is soft, unemployment is around 6.5%, and the US import ban under Section 338 starts September 29.
- The case for holding: CIBC's Andrew Grantham expects the bank to stay on hold "despite a possible energy-driven re-acceleration in headline inflation, due to the downside risks to growth emanating from U.S. trade policy."
- The case for hiking: CREA's Shaun Cathcart said a rate hike "is not only back on the table for this year but already priced in by markets." A falling loonie also imports inflation because US goods cost more in Canadian dollars.
The next decision is October 28, with a new Monetary Policy Report.
What it means for your money
If you hold unhedged US stocks or ETFs: a weaker loonie raises their value in Canadian dollars. Part of your 2026 return on US holdings may simply be currency.
If you're about to convert CAD to USD: every cent the loonie falls makes US assets more expensive. Converting through Norbert's Gambit or a low-cost broker saves more than trying to time the exchange rate.
If you're deciding on hedged vs unhedged ETFs: hedging now locks in a loonie that's already weak. Our hedged vs unhedged guide explains why many long-term investors stay unhedged on US equity.
If you have a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC: your rate follows the Bank of Canada, not the Fed. A widening gap raises pressure on the BoC but doesn't force its hand.
The honest uncertainty
Currency moves are hard to forecast even for professionals, and a 1.5-point gap doesn't set the loonie's value. Oil prices matter a lot for the Canadian dollar, and oil near $100 would normally support it. The fact that the loonie is falling anyway tells you how much weight markets put on the rate gap and trade risk right now.
Frequently asked questions
Why is the Canadian dollar falling in September 2026?
The main driver is the widening interest-rate gap. The Fed raised its target to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 while the Bank of Canada is at 2.25%, so US dollar deposits and bonds pay more. Trade tensions and softer Canadian growth add to the pressure. The loonie fell to about 71.5 US cents, a six-week low.
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates in October 2026?
It's genuinely uncertain. CREA's chief economist said markets have already priced in a hike this year, while CIBC economists expect the bank to hold because of trade-related risks to growth. The October 28 decision comes with a new Monetary Policy Report, which will show how the bank reads the energy shock.
Is a weaker loonie good or bad for Canadian investors?
It depends on what you own. A weaker Canadian dollar raises the Canadian-dollar value of unhedged US and international holdings, so many portfolios gain from it. It hurts when you need to convert loonies into US dollars to buy, travel or retire south.
Should I buy currency-hedged ETFs now?
Hedging removes the currency swing in both directions and usually adds a small cost. After a big move, hedging locks in whatever has already happened. Many long-term investors hold unhedged US exposure because the Canadian dollar tends to fall when stocks fall, which softens losses.
Primary sources
- Statistics Canada — Consumer Price Index, August 2026
- Kitco / Reuters — Canadian dollar hits six-week low as investors bet on additional Fed hikes
- Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- Bank of Canada — Policy rate maintained at 2¼%, September 2, 2026
- BNN Bloomberg — Inflation holds at 3% amid rising rent, travel prices
Data & disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Figures reflect data available as of Sep 18, 2026, and conditions change — always confirm current pricing, rates and rules with the provider before you act. Written by Elizabeta Dimoska. See our editorial standards and disclosure.
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