Japan's Nikkei Is Up About 32% This Year. Here's How to Invest in Japan Without Getting Burned by the Yen.
- The Nikkei 225 closed at 66,364.20 on September 25, 2026, up 1.3% on the day and roughly 32% year to date.
- The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18, the highest since 1995, in a 7-2 vote. Core inflation was 1.7% in August.
- The yen traded near 158 per US dollar on Sept. 25. Japan spent a record 15.4 trillion yen on currency intervention between July 30 and Aug. 26.
- Leaders on Sept. 25 included Komatsu (+6.0%), Resona Holdings (+5.0%) and Tokyo Electron (+4.8%). Banks, chipmakers and exporters have driven much of the rally.
- The Nikkei Volatility Index rose to 28.1, a sign traders expect big swings.
One of the world's best markets this year
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at 66,364.20 on Friday, September 25. That's up roughly 32% in 2026, one of the strongest gains of any major stock market.
It has happened while Japan's central bank is doing something unusual for a hot market: raising interest rates.
Why Japan is rallying
1. AI and chip equipment. Japan makes much of the equipment used to build semiconductors. Tokyo Electron rose 4.8% on September 25 alone.
2. Banks finally earn money. After decades of near-zero rates, the Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. Higher rates widen bank lending margins. Resona Holdings jumped 5%.
3. A weak yen helps exporters. When the yen is cheap, every dollar of overseas sales converts into more yen. Toyota, Komatsu and Sony earn a big share of profits abroad.
4. Corporate reform. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has pushed companies to use cash better. Record dividends and share buybacks have followed.
5. Politics. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's pro-growth fiscal policy has supported the "Takaichi trade" since her election win in February.
The Bank of Japan's balancing act
On September 18, the Bank of Japan raised its rate by a quarter point to 1.25%. The vote was 7-2, with two members preferring to wait. The bank said higher oil prices and a weak yen "could raise import costs and push inflation" above its 2% target.
Yet core inflation was only 1.7% in August. Governor Kazuo Ueda made no promise of more hikes, so the yen actually fell after the decision.
The yen: your hidden second bet
When you buy Japanese stocks, you make two bets: on the stocks and on the yen.
- If the yen falls against your currency, your Japanese stocks are worth less in dollars.
- If the yen rises, you get a currency bonus on top of stock gains.
The yen traded near 158 per US dollar on September 25. It came close to 164 in July, near its weakest level in about four decades, before Japan spent a record 15.4 trillion yen between July 30 and August 26 buying its own currency, with the US joining the intervention.
Yen moves of 10% in a year are common. On a Japan investment, that can turn a good year into an average one, or a good year into a great one.
How to invest in Japan
| Approach | Examples | Best for |
|---|---|---|
| Unhedged Japan ETF (US-listed) | iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) | Long-term investors happy to own yen |
| Currency-hedged Japan ETF (US-listed) | WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ), iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan (HEWJ) | Investors who want stock returns without yen swings |
| Canadian-listed Japan ETFs | Japan index ETFs from iShares and BMO, including CAD-hedged versions | Canadians who want to avoid converting to US dollars |
| Broad international ETF | Developed-markets funds hold roughly 15% to 20% in Japan | Beginners who want Japan as part of a diversified mix |
| Individual stocks | US-listed ADRs of Toyota, Sony and others | Experienced investors |
Before adding a Japan fund, check what you already own. A global or international index fund already includes Japan. Adding a dedicated fund increases the bet.
Not sure whether to hedge? Our guide to currency-hedged vs unhedged ETFs explains the trade-off.
The risks
- Volatility. The Nikkei Volatility Index rose to 28.1 on September 25, a sign traders expect big swings.
- Rising bond yields. Japan's 10-year government bond yield is near its highest in about three decades. Higher yields can pressure stock valuations and hurt Japan's heavily indebted government.
- The yen could snap back. If the Bank of Japan hikes faster than expected, the yen could jump. That hurts exporters and hedged-fund holders who miss the currency gain.
- Concentration. A handful of large chip and tech names drive a big share of the Nikkei's moves.
The honest uncertainty
Japan's rally has real foundations: better corporate governance, higher bank profits and global demand for its technology. But a 32% gain in nine months prices in a lot of good news. If you want Japan exposure, build it gradually, decide deliberately whether you want the yen, and keep it to a size that fits the rest of your portfolio.
Frequently asked questions
Why are Japanese stocks going up in 2026?
Several reasons: strong demand for Japanese chip-equipment and industrial companies tied to AI, higher interest rates that help Japanese banks, a weak yen that boosts exporters' profits, corporate reforms pushing companies to raise dividends and buy back shares, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's pro-growth fiscal policy.
What is the best way to invest in Japanese stocks?
For most people, a broad Japan ETF. US investors can choose unhedged funds such as iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) or currency-hedged funds such as WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) and iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan (HEWJ). Canadians have Canadian-listed Japan ETFs, including CAD-hedged versions. Check fees and holdings before buying.
Should I buy a currency-hedged Japan ETF?
A hedged ETF removes most of the effect of yen moves, so your return tracks Japanese stocks in local terms. That helped when the yen was falling. If you think the yen will strengthen, for example because the Bank of Japan keeps hiking, an unhedged fund would benefit. Many investors split the difference or simply accept currency risk over the long term.
Is it too late to invest in Japan after a 32% gain?
No one can know. Big gains raise the risk of sharp pullbacks; the Nikkei volatility index is elevated. Adding Japan gradually, as part of a diversified international allocation, reduces the risk of buying at a peak.
Primary sources
Data & disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Figures reflect data available as of Sep 26, 2026, and conditions change — always confirm current pricing, rates and rules with the provider before you act. Written by Elizabeta Dimoska. See our editorial standards and disclosure.
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